To memorize and implement: Not the enemy's intentions should concern us - but its capabilities | Uzi Dayan

Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan argues that the Yom Kippur War and the October 7 disaster stemmed from reliance on mistaken concepts and hubris. The central lesson: military force must be built based on the enemy's capabilities, not on an assessment of its intentions. The article compares the two wars and warns against relying on outdated concepts.

Maj. Gen. (res.) Uzi Dayan analyzes in his article the central failure common to the Yom Kippur War and the October 7, 2023 disaster: reliance on mistaken concepts and hubris. He notes that in both wars, Israel was surprised, despite their different natures. In the Yom Kippur War, the concept that Egypt would not attack collapsed, and in the current war, the concept of "Hamas is deterred" collapsed. Dayan emphasizes that the main lesson is that nothing is more dangerous than relying on concepts that have expired, and that military force must be built and operated based on the enemy's capabilities, not on an assessment of its intentions. He compares the operational unpreparedness in both wars: then - unpreparedness for anti-tank missiles and air defense, and today - a shortage of forces on the Gaza and Lebanon borders and reliance on a security fence and technology without soldiers in the field. The article concludes with a call to memorize and implement the lessons of both wars.