Track record
Forecasts and how they turned out
Every prediction NewsLI has published, with the probability it was given and what actually happened.
Each Story of the Day ends in dated, falsifiable forecasts. The stated probability is not one analyst's opinion — three isolated lenses score every candidate and the median is published. Once the deadline passes, a separate judge that never sees the original reasoning rules on the outcome from the evidence. Nothing is edited afterwards: the misses stay up alongside the hits.
Scored record
Brier runs 0 to 1 — lower is better. Skill above 0 means the forecasts beat simply predicting the historical average. Recomputed nightly over every settled forecast.
1103 forecasts
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The Iraqi-Syrian rapprochement, initiated by PM al-Zaidi's visit, will lead to at least one formal security or trade agreement within 90 days.
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At least one of the 19 settlements in the Connection Plan will receive formal government approval within 90 days.
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The Ministry of Health will issue at least one new public advisory on rabies prevention within 30 days, driven by the cluster of recent exposures.
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At least one additional public figure or organization in Israel will issue a statement calling for improved DEI responses to antisemitism within 30 days.
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The defense budget will rise by at least 10 billion shekels in the next government's first budget, as the 25 billion shekel gap between the Treasury and defense establishment is partially resolved through increased spending.
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SolarEdge will announce at least one further reduction in headcount or an additional site closure within 90 days, extending a run of five restructuring rounds in under three years.
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The shekel will trade weaker than 3.05 to the dollar at some point in the 30 days after the election, as the turnout-driven rally unwinds once coalition arithmetic replaces civic optimism.
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The state will file an updated compliance report with the High Court on the Jalud family's return before the court imposes the NIS 50,000 daily contempt fine sought by petitioners.
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The Mount Hebron Regional Council will formalize at least one of the eight announced Hebron Hills outposts as a recognized settlement within 90 days.
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Jordan will conduct at least one additional cross-border strike into Syria targeting armed groups within 30 days, extending the pattern set by Monday night's operation.
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The price gaps for laptops in Israel will reach at least 40% by the end of the year, as estimated by the computing industry.
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The Netanyahu bloc will fail to secure a majority of 61 seats in the 26th Knesset elections, based on the Channel 14 poll giving it 62 seats being within the margin of error and the high first-time voter turnout potentially shifting results.
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Nathan Netanyahu will not rejoin Likud within 30 days, as his stated condition of 'different leadership' is unlikely to be met in that timeframe.
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The Syrian transitional government will announce at least one additional high-profile arrest of a former Assad regime figure within 30 days, continuing the purge of the old guard.
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The IDF will not carry out the unspecified military action 'relating to Iran' that Netanyahu reportedly pushed for within 30 days.
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The conviction of one defendant in the submarine affair for mediation for bribery will lead to at least one additional defendant in the case seeking a plea deal within 30 days.
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Public debate over trust in Arab healthcare professionals will intensify, with at least one additional public figure or organization issuing a statement on the issue within 30 days.
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At least one additional US public school district will face a similar CAIR-style objection over a trip to a Jewish camp with Israel connections within 90 days.
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The number of Jewish doctors immigrating to Israel from Britain will exceed 100 in the next 30 days, continuing the trend seen at the MedEX fair.
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The police budget dispute will escalate, with Police Commissioner Danny Levi filing a High Court petition within 30 days to secure the delayed 350 million shekels.
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Netanyahu will make at least one additional public request for Trump's backing within 30 days, beyond the two calls in the last three days.
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The student protest movement will form a parliamentary faction within 30 days, with at least one named student leader publicly announcing their candidacy for a seat.
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The net outflow of Israelis (leavers minus returnees) will exceed 6,000 in the next 90 days, accelerating from the 5,100 recorded in 2024.
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Saudi Arabia will not issue any public statement endorsing normalization with Israel within 30 days, maintaining its current posture of public criticism despite private channels remaining open.
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The price of 95-octane gasoline at self-service stations in Israel will rise above 8.5 shekels per liter within 30 days.
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Arab voter turnout in the October 28 Knesset elections will reach at least 65%, up from previous elections, as indicated by Netanyahu's closed-door warning of a 75% surge.
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Iran will publicly reject the US naval blockade in a new official statement within 30 days, even as the Hormuz proposal remains on the table.
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Moti Leitner's Haredi Public party will fail to pass the electoral threshold in the October 28 elections, resulting in its votes being wasted.
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The Ministry of Finance will formally propose a reform to the insurance commission model within 90 days, reducing the total commissions paid annually.
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The number of journalists jailed in Turkey will exceed 20 within 90 days, continuing the current rate of arrests.
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The opposition's minority government plan will be publicly criticized by at least one additional named party leader (beyond Liberman and Bennett) within 7 days.
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The number of reported femicides in Israel will increase by at least 20% in the 90 days following the murder of Yana Zikova, compared to the same period in the previous year.
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Iranian efforts to plan attacks against US civilians will be publicly cited by at least one additional US intelligence official within 30 days, beyond Clayton's memo.
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Internal coalition tensions over Haredi Shabbat observance will produce at least one public resignation or formal coalition crisis within 30 days.
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Turkey will publicly reiterate its opposition to any military strike on Iran within 30 days, possibly through another Fidan statement or a joint declaration with Iran.
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The QatarGate security indictments against Orich and Feldstein will be formally filed within 30 days, given the Mossad opinion transfer.
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The Israeli security cabinet will approve a significant expansion of military operations in the West Bank within 30 days, including large-scale raids and arrests, but will stop short of a full-scale campaign to dismantle the Palestinian Authority.
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Netanyahu will publicly commit to a specific military plan for Judea and Samaria within 7 days, either by announcing a preemptive strike or by detailing a response to the Yehuda Junction attack.
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The number of homicides in Arab society will exceed 200 by the end of November 2026, continuing the current trend of unchecked violence.
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The IDF will issue additional reserve duty orders exceeding 60 days for at least one battalion within 30 days, reflecting sustained operational pressure.
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The UAE will secure at least one additional permanent UN Security Council member's public endorsement of Lana Nusseibeh's candidacy for UN secretary-general within 30 days.
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Russia will continue large-scale missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities at a rate of at least one multi-wave attack every 72 hours over the next 7 days.
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The High Court of Justice will issue a ruling or interim order within 7 days that imposes additional sanctions on Haredi draft dodgers, beyond the current status quo.
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Ahmad Tibi's two-stage plan will be formally endorsed by at least one additional Arab-majority party (beyond the Joint List) within 30 days of the election.
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The combined vote share of small right-wing parties (Amcha Yisrael, Hatzibur Haharedi, Noam LeYisrael, Tzomet Beit Yisrael) will exceed 4.5% in the official election results, preventing them from all being wasted votes.
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At least one of the nine released settler-attack suspects will be returned to custody or have house-arrest terms tightened by a court within 7 days.
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Greece will file a formal diplomatic protest or legal objection against the Turkey-Libya maritime delimitation agreement within 30 days.
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At least one of the small lists now polling near the threshold (People of Israel, Charedi Public, Handel-Zalicha) will not appear on the final ballot as an independent list, whether by withdrawal or merger.
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Houthi attacks on Saudi civilian infrastructure will continue, with at least one additional strike on a Saudi airport or oil facility reported by a named Saudi authority within 30 days.
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The United States and Israel will not publicly announce a new joint strike operation against Iran before the US midterm elections on November 3, with any disclosed planning slipping past that date.