The Iranian tap is shut: The Tehran campaign reaches its most critical stage | Amit Yagur

The campaign against Iran enters a new and decisive phase, amid economic strangulation, damage to military capability, and growing internal pressure. The author, Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur, analyzes the campaign's phase architecture, drawing comparisons to the past: unlike the era of the Shah, the Iranian economy is almost completely disconnected, and the central "social bribe" mechanism used by the regime to buy quiet no longer works. While during the January 2026 protests the regime used brutal force thanks to budgets still flowing from oil sales, today the pipeline has dried up, hurting the pockets of senior Revolutionary Guard officials and eroding the salaries of other security forces personnel. The flare-up on the southeastern front (Sistan and Baluchestan) and the formation of a coalition to topple the regime, amid reports of a leaders' summit in the Emirates attended by Prime Minister Netanyahu, indicate the new phase. Concrete developments on the ground include about 20 empty Iranian oil tankers stranded off the coast of Sri Lanka, new US sanctions on Iranian car manufacturers, and expanding pressure on civil activists in Iran. The author notes that the US seems to understand that toppling the regime is an Archimedean point for a new regional order in the Middle East.