Erdogan's quiet victory in the Horn of Africa – and Uganda's fury

Uganda has suspended security cooperation with Turkey, amid concerns over the end of the African Union mission in Somalia. Kampala could lose up to $72 million a year if it withdraws its forces. The official dispute over a Ugandan opposition activist exiled in Turkey is, according to sources, a 'smokescreen' for a broader disagreement over the military presence in Somalia and Turkey's growing role.

Uganda has immediately suspended security and military cooperation with Turkey, a move that informed sources call a 'smokescreen' for a broader dispute. The official decision was justified by the presence of a Ugandan opposition activist exiled in Turkey, but sources claim the real reason is the uncertain future of the African Union mission in Somalia (Aussom) and Turkey's growing role in Somalia's security sector. Uganda maintains about 4,500 soldiers in Somalia as part of the mission and another 2,000 under a bilateral agreement. The United States announced in July that it would stop payments to the UN logistics support body for the mission by the end of the year, casting doubt on its future. Sources said Uganda receives at least $1,000 per month for each soldier stationed in Somalia and could lose between $60 and $72 million a year if the mission ends and it withdraws its forces. Turkey, for its part, is seeking a solution out of fear of damage to infrastructure and transportation projects by Turkish companies in Uganda, including a $3 billion railway contract that could be canceled.