Why Israel did not prevent the October 7 massacre - opinion
The article analyzes the reasons why Israel failed to prevent the Hamas attack on October 7, despite warnings from the intelligence agencies of Egypt, the US, and Jordan. The main reason cited is the erroneous assessment by Israeli and American analysts of the group's intentions, which used de-escalation negotiations as a cover to prepare a large-scale attack.
The article, based on a publication by The Atlantic, analyzes why Israel did not prevent the Hamas attack on October 7, despite numerous warnings. In the weeks leading up to the tragedy, intelligence data largely did not indicate preparations for a large-scale invasion, and assessments were limited to the likelihood of rocket attacks. An Egyptian source noted that President al-Sisi's decision to send the head of intelligence to Israel demonstrated the seriousness with which Cairo treated the information. The first warning signs appeared before the summer of 2023 but were not specific enough. Israel's attention was focused on the West Bank, and the situation in Gaza was considered under control. Hamas used de-escalation negotiations as a cover to prepare the attack. Egypt continued to transmit warnings until October 5, without specifying a date. American intelligence also recorded a growing threat: on September 28, the CIA circulated a report on possible escalation, but it mainly referred to rocket attacks. The article concludes that Israeli and American analysts operated under the erroneous assessment that Hamas was not interested in a full-scale conflict.