Netanyahu's 'October Surprise' revealed: Likud's secret move for the home stretch

Likud is preparing a secret plan for the final stretch of the election campaign, aiming to win back lost voters and reshuffle the deck. The campaign team estimates that better utilization of "sleepy" polling stations could yield 2–3 seats. Meanwhile, the party faces the dilemma of Ofer Winter, who could drain right-wing votes if he fails to pass the electoral threshold.

Likud is gearing up for the final stretch of the election campaign with a secret operational plan, dubbed the "October Surprise," to be unveiled right after the holidays. The campaign team estimates that better utilization of "sleepy" polling stations—areas with relatively low voter turnout—could yield an additional two to three seats for Likud. These are potential voters the party has lost since March, when it stood at 32 seats, compared to 23 in the current poll. Meanwhile, Likud faces the dilemma of Ofer Winter, who heads the "Amcha Yisrael" list. In recent polls, Winter does not pass the electoral threshold but is close enough to risk right-wing votes totaling 2–3 seats if he runs to the end and remains outside. Conflicting voices are heard within the party: some push for continued pressure on Winter to withdraw, while others warn that attacking him could actually strengthen him. According to polls, the entire coalition bloc has eroded from 50 seats in March to 49, while the Zionist opposition bloc dropped from 60 to 55. The Arab parties strengthened from 10 to 12. About 8% of the public is still undecided, equivalent to about 10 seats. The central question, according to the commentator, is who will succeed in getting them out of their homes and where they will go.