Threat of a Strong El Niño – What to Expect from Global Weather

Researchers are recording the most intense El Niño ever observed, even though the peak of the phenomenon has not yet passed. Scientists link the anomaly to heat accumulation in the western Pacific Ocean during the La Niña phase and a series of powerful easterly winds generating Kelvin waves. These processes threaten large-scale weather anomalies worldwide.

The El Niño climate phenomenon is showing record intensity in the history of regular observations, although several months remain before its peak. Scientists are recording indicators that completely exceed normal charts and warn of large-scale weather consequences for the entire planet. To understand the causes of the current anomaly, researchers turn to the opposite phase of the cycle—La Niña. During this period, steady winds push the sun-heated surface waters of the Pacific Ocean westward, toward the coasts of Australia and Indonesia. As a result, a huge reservoir of warm water forms in the region, raising the local sea level by about twenty centimeters. When air currents weaken or change direction, this giant mass of hot water rushes back eastward, triggering a global rise in temperatures. According to American expert Michael McPhaden from the NOAA agency, background global warming has significantly increased the temperature of this Pacific "pool" over recent decades. By the end of 2025, a colossal amount of thermal energy had accumulated in the western ocean. The main catalyst for the record heat was a series of powerful easterly winds that actively push the accumulated hot water toward South America. Each strong gust of wind generates a descending bulge of warm water, known as a Kelvin wave, which, moving across the entire Pacific Ocean, multiplies the overall heating.