The Iran war is creating a new global energy risk beyond the Strait of Hormuz - analysis

The Iran war is reshaping global energy markets as disruptions to Gulf oil exports extend beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu suspended oil loadings, and the East-West Pipeline remains offline after attacks. Brent crude rose 3.3% to $109.20, and WTI climbed 5% to $106.46. Analysts estimate $12–15 of the price increase reflects confirmed supply losses, with the rest as an uncertainty premium. The crisis has evolved from a single-chokepoint problem into a broader Gulf supply security question.

The Iran war is reshaping global energy markets as disruptions to Gulf oil exports extend beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia's Red Sea port of Yanbu suspended oil loadings, and the East-West Pipeline remained offline after attacks on the kingdom's energy infrastructure. Brent crude futures rose $3.49 (3.3%) to $109.20 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $5.08 (5%) to $106.46. Analysts estimate $12–15 of the roughly $30 price increase reflects confirmed supply losses, with the remainder as an uncertainty premium linked to the conflict's duration and expansion into the Red Sea. Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have operational pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz, covering less than half of pre-war transit volumes. The crisis has evolved from a single-chokepoint problem centered on Hormuz into a broader question of Gulf supply security. Higher prices have increasingly divided Gulf economies between those that can partially benefit and those for which disruption costs outweigh gains. Saudi Arabia and the UAE entered the crisis with advantages, but even for them, disruption costs now appear to outweigh regional price gains.