The dream of normalization with Saudi Arabia clouded Netanyahu’s judgment - opinion

Three years after the October 7 massacre, an analysis argues that the pursuit of normalization with Saudi Arabia clouded Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's judgment and shaped the strategic calculations of both Israel and Hamas. The article details how Netanyahu prioritized the Saudi deal, dismissing warnings from Egypt and the UAE about Hamas's preparations, while Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar viewed normalization as an existential threat requiring an "extraordinary action" to disrupt. The piece contends that the normalization drive influenced the timing of the October 7 attack.

Three years after the October 7 massacre, an analysis by Elie Podeh argues that the pursuit of normalization with Saudi Arabia clouded Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's judgment and shaped the strategic calculations of both Israel and Hamas. The article details how Netanyahu, in his September 2023 UN speech, described the Abraham Accords as an appetizer before the main course of Saudi normalization, which he believed was at the cusp of a historic breakthrough. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had stated two days earlier that normalization was getting closer every day. The Biden administration was reportedly moving toward a broad agreement including Israeli-Saudi normalization, a US-Saudi defense pact, and assistance for a Saudi civilian nuclear program. The article contends that when warnings arrived from Egypt and the UAE about Hamas's preparations, they reached a prime minister who was dazzled by the prospect of normalization and suffered from excessive confidence in Israel's ability to deal with the Hamas threat. For Hamas, normalization represented a strategic threat. Minutes from a Hamas leadership meeting on September 26-27, 2023, show Sinwar speaking of the need for an "extraordinary action" to bring about a strategic shift, arguing that normalization could push the Palestinian issue off the agenda. The article concludes that the normalization issue played a major role in determining the timing of the October 7 operation.