Senior researcher explains: "The Iranians assume that after the midterm elections he will return to an intense war"
Iran researcher Danny Citrinowicz analyzes the confrontation with Tehran: the naval blockade is working and Iran is not exporting oil, but the economic pressure leads to escalation rather than surrender. The Iranians threaten to attack the airports of anyone who joins the blockade. According to him, Tehran estimates that Trump is under pressure until the midterm elections and therefore gains can be achieved, but afterwards he is expected to return to an intense war.
Iran researcher Danny Citrinowicz analyzes in an interview with 103FM the current confrontation with Tehran. According to him, the naval blockade imposed on Iran is indeed working in practice — Iran is not exporting oil, and this is a significant achievement. However, the economic pressure does not lead to Iranian surrender but rather to escalation: the Iranians threaten that anyone who joins the blockade will have their airports attacked. Citrinowicz presents the Iranian dilemma from their perspective: they assess that President Trump is under great pressure until the midterm elections, and therefore they can achieve significant gains. Rising oil prices are hurting the Republican Party in polls. Iran's main goal, he says, is to change the strategic reality in its favor — to remove the US from the Middle East and ensure there will be no future attacks on Iran. Whether through negotiations or attacks, they will not accept the current situation where they are not exporting oil and suffering from sanctions. Regarding Israel, Citrinowicz estimates that Iran has no interest in bringing Israel into the event, as long as the confrontation is concentrated in the Strait of Hormuz. He adds that Trump himself does not know what to do with Iran, but the Iranians assume that after the midterm elections he will return to an intense war.