Right-wing upheaval: Smotrich overtakes Ben Gvir – Pilbar explains why

Shlomo Pilbar, a pollster for Channel 14, analyzes the latest seat projection and points to a trend where the public punishes leaders who act independently at the expense of bloc solidarity. According to him, Lieberman has become the 'weak link' in the change bloc and suffered strategic damage, while Ben Gvir has weakened for the first time in favor of Smotrich. The right-wing bloc maintains stability with 63 seats.

Shlomo Pilbar, a pollster for Channel 14, analyzed the latest seat projection data in an interview with Tal Meir and pointed to a central trend: the public punishes leaders who act independently at the expense of bloc solidarity. According to him, Avigdor Lieberman has become the 'weak link' in the change bloc, after expressing support for the entry of Jordanian forces into Judea and Samaria – a move described as 'strategic damage' that causes a leakage of seats back to the right-wing bloc. Meanwhile, Itamar Ben Gvir has weakened for the first time in favor of Bezalel Smotrich, with the Otzma Yehudit party dropping to six seats compared to seven for Religious Zionism-Jewish Identity. Pilbar explained that Ben Gvir's independent campaign against Likud, refusal to unite, and distribution of portfolios without bloc coordination – all harm him at the ballot box. The right-wing bloc maintains stability with 63 seats, the left-wing bloc with 45, and the Arab parties with 12. The poll shows Likud leading with 32 seats, Yashar of Gadi Eisenkot with 22, Shas 11, The Democrats 9, Together 7, United Torah Judaism 7, Yisrael Beiteinu 7, and Hadash-Ta'al 7.