Not only war with Russia on the horizon: Harsh news for Chancellor Merz in Germany

DeutschlandTrend and Politbarometer polls show a dramatic weakening of Chancellor Friedrich Merz and his CDU/CSU party, alongside a significant strengthening of the AfD. The polls indicate the AfD leads with 27-28% support, while the conservative bloc drops to just 20-21%. 79% of respondents believe Merz is doing a bad job, and 65% do not believe he will complete his term until 2029.

A year and a half after the federal elections in Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces a severe political crisis. The DeutschlandTrend survey by ARD, published over the weekend, paints a grim picture for the conservative bloc: the AfD receives 27% support, while Merz's CDU and CSU get only 20%. This is one of the worst poll results in the history of the conservative party. The gap compared to the February 2025 elections is significant: then CDU and CSU received 28.6% of the vote, while now the bloc has lost more than eight percentage points. Conversely, the AfD has strengthened by more than six points. The ZDF Politbarometer survey from late September confirms the trend: AfD with 28%, CDU and CSU with 21%. The current coalition of conservatives and Social Democrats is far from a parliamentary majority. 79% of respondents believe Merz is doing a bad job as chancellor, and 65% do not believe he will complete his term until the federal elections scheduled for spring 2029. The weakness is also felt within the conservative camp: support for Merz within the Christian Union is eroding, and party members are encountering deep disappointment with the chancellor. In the recent Berlin elections, 54% of CDU voters said they had high hopes for Merz and are now disappointed. The results of the regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt also reinforced the sense of crisis, with a dramatic achievement for the AfD and a severe blow to the CDU. If the trends continue, Germany may reach an election where the AfD is the largest party in the country.