In Turkey, they analyze Israel - and this is the scenario that worries Ankara

Three years after October 7, Turkey is analyzing Israel's strengthening and fears a deep shift in the regional balance of power. Ankara estimates that even a change of government may not necessarily alter the picture. Tensions peaked in August 2026, when an Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur air base sparked sharp warnings.

Three years after the events of October 7, 2023, Turkey is analyzing Israel's strengthening and fears a deep shift in the regional balance of power. Ankara estimates that even a change of government in Israel may not necessarily change the picture. The rapprochement between the countries has turned into escalation: Israel's response to the Gaza campaign led to a hardening of Ankara's stance. Despite a ceasefire in October 2025, the political settlement remains unresolved, and the IDF holds over 60% of the Strip's territory. Turkey recalled its ambassador in November 2023, halted bilateral trade in May 2024, and in August 2024 joined South Africa's lawsuit against Israel at the ICJ. Tensions peaked in August 2026, when an Israeli strike on the Abu al-Duhur air base, which was alleged to be set to host Turkish forces, sparked sharp warnings and prevented the establishment of a coordination mechanism. Israel's internal politics and upcoming elections occupy Ankara's policymakers. The prevailing assumption is that strategic distrust has become structural. Core issues—Gaza, Syria, Iran, the Eastern Mediterranean—will continue to be friction points. The first test will be Gaza's reconstruction: Turkey joined the US-led regional "Peace Council" but its influence on the ground is limited. It demands a key role in the stabilization mechanism but understands its capacity depends on agreements with Israel and the US.