How Israel hopes third war with Iran will be different than Gaza - analysis

Analysis by Yonah Jeremy Bob examines whether a third US-Israel war with Iran would be a decisive victory or another endless round like the Gaza conflicts. Israeli officials hope internal Iranian opposition and US military partnership could make this round more effective, though over 30,000 bombs dropped in early 2026 did not yield nuclear concessions.

Many Israelis expect a third round of war between the US-Israel alliance and Iran, raising the question of whether this will be the last battle or just another endless round, similar to Israel's experience with Hamas in Gaza. Israeli officials point to two hopeful factors: tens of millions of Iranians who oppose the regime, creating potential for internal rebellion, and the full military partnership of the United States. However, counterpoints include the difficulty of a major land operation and the fact that over 30,000 bombs dropped on Iran in early 2026 did not achieve nuclear concessions or topple the regime. Optimistic officials believe additional attacks combined with pressure might force Tehran to bend on the nuclear issue or even lead to regime change, but they are far from certain. The analysis weighs whether the gamble will be worth the cost to the Israeli home front.