"60% that Iran will start a war": Former National Security Council head assesses the chances of escalation
Former National Security Council head Prof. Yaakov Nagel estimated in an interview that there is a 60% chance that Iran will start a war against the US amid economic pressure. He presented three scenarios: negotiations (10%), war (60%), or waiting for the 2028 elections (30%).
Former National Security Council head, Brig. Gen. (res.) Prof. Yaakov Nagel, estimated in an interview on 103fm that there is a 60% chance that Iran will start a war against the United States, amid the intensifying American economic pressure. Nagel presented three scenarios: entering negotiations (10%), starting a war (60%), or continuing the current policy in an attempt to wait for the US presidential elections in November 2028 (30%). According to him, the Iranians fear that continued economic pressure will lead to an internal uprising, and therefore may choose a military confrontation that would harm interests in the Gulf, the global economy, and the internet. Nagel also addressed possible Israeli involvement, noting that Israel is currently not included in the American plan, but may join if the US requests it or if Iran attacks it.