World Bank expects global commodity prices to rise by 23% in 2026

The World Bank expects global commodity prices to rise by 23% in 2026, driven by simultaneous shocks in energy, food, and metals markets, warning that continued conflicts and supply disruptions could exacerbate inflation and food insecurity.

The World Bank expects global commodity prices to rise by 23% in 2026, driven by simultaneous shocks in energy, food, and metals markets, warning that continued conflicts, supply disruptions, and the repercussions of climate phenomena could exacerbate inflation and food insecurity. According to a report released by the Bank on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, energy prices are expected to rise by 32% this year after three consecutive years of decline, before falling again in 2027. Food commodity prices are also expected to rise by about 10% in 2026 and an additional 7% in the following year, a cumulative increase of about 18% over two years. These forecasts are based on the assumption of no major new escalation in conflicts affecting global commodity supplies, while the Bank warned that an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, continued damage to Russian oil infrastructure, and disruption of grain shipments in the Black Sea could push prices higher. In a more pessimistic scenario, the coincidence of these disruptions with a severe El Niño climate phenomenon could raise food commodity prices by 12% above the levels expected in the baseline scenario, increasing pressure on purchasing power and threatening to exacerbate food insecurity. The World Bank expects global oil supply to fall by 5.2% this year, the largest decline in more than four decades except for the global recession in 2020, while oil consumption is expected to fall by 2.5%.