With back to the wall and eyes on elections: the scenarios for an Iranian attack on Israel

The fear of an Iranian miscalculation underlies Prime Minister Netanyahu's warning during his visit to Tel Nof. Israel has identified a restoration of Iranian capabilities that could enable a surprise attack, alongside a gap between capability and intent. The election period in Israel is at the center of Iranian analyses. Assessments are based on Iran's deteriorating economic and internal situation due to sanctions, which could lead to extreme measures such as mass terror attacks or a combined missile strike with Hezbollah.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a warning this week during a visit to the Tel Nof air force base, against the backdrop of Israeli concerns over an Iranian miscalculation that could lead to a surprise attack on Israel. According to sources familiar with the matter, Israel has recently identified that the Iranians have restored a range of capabilities and are capable of carrying out a surprise attack. However, at this stage, the assessment is that there is a gap between capability and intent, which has not yet been identified. The tense election period in Israel is also at the center of Iranian analyses regarding the question of a retaliatory attack. Intelligence assessments are based, among other things, on the understanding that Iran, in its deteriorating economic and internal situation due to American sanctions and blockade, may take extreme steps. Among the options before it: carrying out mass terror attacks directly or through its proxy organizations against Israeli and Jewish targets worldwide, or a missile attack by Hezbollah or Iran itself, or from both fronts simultaneously. Two days ago, the spokesman for the Iranian army said that his country is ready to carry out a preemptive attack if it identifies an immediate threat of an attack against it.