What happens after UNIFIL leaves Lebanon, and what might take its place? - explainer

UNIFIL is set to end normal operations in southern Lebanon on December 31, 2026, raising questions about who will monitor the border and prevent another Israel-Hezbollah war. French President Macron hosts talks in Paris with Lebanese President Aoun and Jordan's King Abdullah to discuss a successor. France and Italy are developing plans for a multinational training and advisory mission for the Lebanese Armed Forces, while Lebanon pushes for a limited UNIFIL extension. The core dispute over Hezbollah's disarmament and Israeli withdrawal remains unresolved. The approaching deadline has triggered urgent diplomatic efforts, with more than 10 EU countries expressing interest in supporting the Lebanese army. A US-brokered framework from June that aimed to link Israeli withdrawal with Hezbollah disarmament has stalled.

UNIFIL, the United Nations peacekeeping force in southern Lebanon, is scheduled to end normal operations on December 31, 2026, followed by an orderly withdrawal lasting up to a year. The approaching deadline has triggered urgent diplomatic talks. French President Emmanuel Macron is hosting Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Jordan's King Abdullah II in Paris on Thursday to discuss what comes next after nearly five decades of UN presence along the Israel-Lebanon border. France and Italy are developing plans for a possible multinational successor, with more than 10 European Union countries expressing interest in providing training and advisory support to the Lebanese Armed Forces. Lebanon is making a late push to keep UNIFIL in place a little longer, warning that withdrawing under current conditions could leave a security vacuum. The core dispute remains unresolved: Israel refuses to withdraw from Lebanese territory without assurances of Hezbollah's complete disarmament, while Lebanon insists Israeli forces must leave. A US-brokered framework agreed to in June that was supposed to link gradual Israeli withdrawal with Hezbollah's disarmament and Lebanese army deployment in the south has stalled. UNIFIL was created in 1978 and expanded after the 2006 war under UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which called for the area between the Blue Line and the Litani River to be free of armed personnel other than Lebanese government forces. Hezbollah built extensive military infrastructure in the area despite the resolution. UNIFIL has long maintained it was never tasked with forcibly disarming Hezbollah. The force numbers more than 7,500 peacekeepers and also provides a liaison channel between Israel and Lebanon, which have no diplomatic relations.