Putin plays Trump – expert reveals possible Kremlin calculation

International security expert Taras Zhovtenko analyzes the possible Kremlin strategy around Donald Trump's initiative for an "energy truce." In his view, Moscow is demonstrating readiness for dialogue, counting on concessions from the US after the elections, and also trying to link the cessation of strikes on its oil infrastructure with sanctions relief.

International security expert Taras Zhovtenko, in a commentary to Channel 24, reveals the possible Kremlin calculation around Donald Trump's initiative for an "energy truce." In his opinion, Moscow may deliberately demonstrate readiness for dialogue with Washington in order to later present this as a favor for which the US must "pay back." Russia, according to the expert, understands that amid escalation it must simultaneously talk about the possibility of negotiations to preserve room for diplomatic maneuver and exploit the political situation in the US. After the elections, Moscow may try to present demands to Washington, citing allegedly incurred risks. However, behind this rhetoric lies a pragmatic reason: Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refining infrastructure create economic problems. The Kremlin is interested in reducing pressure and may try to link the cessation of attacks on energy infrastructure with sanctions relief, especially on oil exports and banking sector operations. Kyiv, in turn, insists on mutual steps and is ready to discuss de-escalation only with similar actions from Russia.