War or assassination: The scenarios that could become the election surprise

An article by former IDF Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin and Udi Avantal presents ten security, diplomatic, and political scenarios that could surprise the upcoming elections in Israel. Among the scenarios: renewal of the US-Iran war, abduction of soldiers in Gaza, a strategic attack abroad, an Iranian assassination, sanctions on Israel, escalation in Judea and Samaria, surprising normalization with Gulf states, a breakthrough with Syria, Trump's intervention in the elections, and political murder.

An article by former IDF Intelligence Chief, Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Yadlin, and strategy expert Udi Avantal examines ten scenarios that could become the 'October surprise' of the upcoming elections in Israel. The term, originating in American politics, describes a surprising event on the eve of elections that could change their course. The scenarios range from the renewal of the war between the US and Iran, through the abduction of soldiers in Gaza, a deadly spectacular attack abroad, an Iranian assassination of a senior Israeli official, to the imposition of international sanctions on Israel due to Jewish terrorism in Judea and Samaria. Also examined are scenarios of surprising normalization with Kuwait or Israeli assistance to Saudi Arabia, a breakthrough with Syria involving a withdrawal from the buffer zone, intervention by President Trump in favor of or against Netanyahu, and political murder against a backdrop of incitement. The authors emphasize that most scenarios are 'in the cards' and have a basis in reality, and that the sensitive period before the elections, which includes the anniversary of the October 7 massacre, requires vigilance from security forces and the public.