Three years of war have changed the Middle East: Iran weakened - but no new order yet | Baruch Yedid

Three years after October 7, the Middle East has fundamentally changed: Iran has lost strategic depth, Hezbollah and Hamas have shifted to a guerrilla and survival model, Assad has fallen, and Syria has distanced itself from the Iranian axis. Turkey and the Gulf states are trying to reshape the region, while the Palestinian question returns to the center of regional discourse. The old order has been broken, but a new order has not yet been born.

Three years after October 7, the Middle East has undergone a profound change but a new regional order has not yet crystallized. Iran, the biggest loser in the region, has lost a significant part of the strategic depth it built over years. Hezbollah has weakened and lost its ability to invade and deter, transitioning to a guerrilla model. Hamas has moved from a model of territorial military power to one of survival, insurgency, and guerrilla warfare. Assad's fall removed Syria from the Iranian axis, and the new leadership in Damascus is reexamining its place between Turkey, Arab states, the United States, and Israel. In Lebanon, a new leadership is beginning to try to bring the country back to the center. Turkey is deepening its influence in Syria and strengthening its ties with Gulf states, aiming to become a major regional power. The Gulf states are changing their security perception: the UAE is advancing toward strategic autonomy and hard security alliances, while Saudi Arabia is operating on its own track. The Palestinian question returns to the center of regional discourse, as the war demonstrated that attempts to push it aside are unstable. The article concludes by noting that the foundation for the change was laid by IDF soldiers with their blood and spirit.