Three scenarios for Russia's future after the war from American analysts

American analysts from Foreign Policy have presented three scenarios for Russia's future after the war in Ukraine: maintaining Putin's regime with continued confrontation with the West, limited engagement after conflict resolution, and a "black swan" — unpredictable leadership change. Experts urge Washington to prepare for negotiations and rebuild diplomatic capacity.

American analysts from Foreign Policy have presented three scenarios for Russia's future after the end of the war in Ukraine. The first scenario assumes the current regime remains in power, with harsh political confrontation with Western countries continuing or intensifying. The second scenario is limited engagement: conflict resolution would create a narrow space for targeted cooperation on strategic stability, nuclear risk control, the Arctic, and space. The third scenario is a "black swan": unpredictable leadership change or internal upheaval that would open fundamentally new opportunities. Experts emphasize that recent visits by American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to Moscow and Kyiv did not lead to a breakthrough, and urge Washington to rebuild negotiation capacity, study archival materials, and involve diplomats with knowledge of the Russian language. The article is analytical in nature, presenting recommendations from American experts without evaluative language.