"They only get better": The preemptive strike that was frozen and the red line against the Houthis

The Houthis have captured the Hanish Islands, the port of Mokha, and Mayun Island, expanding their control over the Red Sea shipping route to Eilat. Israeli security and intelligence officials warn of the collapse of the Saudi front and note that no one has deterrence against the organization, which is evolving from a tactical problem into a global strategic threat. The military recommends waiting for the formation of a regional coalition.

The Houthis captured key targets in the Red Sea this week: on Monday the Hanish Islands, last Thursday the port city of Mokha, and on Friday Mayun Island. This move gives them control over the area around the strategic Bab el-Mandeb Strait and threatens the shipping route to the port of Eilat. A senior Israeli security official said the Houthis have suffered heavy blows from the air force, the Americans, and the Saudis, but they only seem to be getting better and are demonstrating alarming ground and intelligence capabilities. An Israeli intelligence source detailed three dangers that could change the military's stance: escalation between Iran and the US leading to Houthi attacks on Israel; Houthi takeover of the waterway that would paralyze the port of Eilat; and a Saudi request for Israeli assistance. A senior Israeli diplomat noted that Israel would have to consider entering a conflict if the port of Eilat is paralyzed, and that the Houthis might impose transit fees. An Israeli intelligence source emphasized that no one has deterrence against the Houthis—not the Americans, not Israel, and certainly not the Saudis—and that they are the dark horse no one expected. An Israeli political source said the Houthis are evolving from a local tactical problem into a global strategic problem, with the ability to affect the entire Middle East. Israel struck Houthi targets between May and October 2025, including the assassination of the Houthi prime minister and ministers. The security official noted that Israel delivered the most painful blows to the organization.