The world after Iran: the long-term consequences of the war are only beginning to become clear

An analysis of the long-term consequences of the Israel-US war in Iran. The author argues that the failure of regime change has removed deterrence from Iran, leading to an arms race in the Gulf and a future of violent confrontations between Gulf states and Iran.

The article, written by a Foreign Policy commentator, examines the long-term consequences of the Israel-United States war in Iran, beyond the immediate effects already visible on the ground. The author argues that alongside technological changes on the battlefield and threats to the global economy, deeper tectonic shifts are occurring that may reshape global geopolitics. The main argument focuses on the fact that the failure of the American attempt to bring about regime change in Iran has removed this existential threat from Tehran's perspective, thereby changing the deterrence equation. As a result, Iran is now able to directly threaten Gulf economies without fearing for the survival of its regime. The Gulf states, feeling betrayed, are now racing to acquire and produce vast fleets of drones and missiles, which could lead to a dangerous regional arms race. The author warns that unlike the nuclear deterrence of the Cold War, these conventional weapons stockpiles will not create stability but rather serve as a catalyst for further violent confrontations, as each side tries to test the other's limits.