The US has gained an advantage in Hormuz - but the path to defeating Iran is still far off

Seven months after the outbreak of the war against Iran, oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to about 80% of pre-war levels, an American achievement that comes at a heavy cost of force deployment and depletion of munitions stockpiles. Meanwhile, China continues to assist Iran, forcing Washington to balance between pressure on Tehran and strategic competition in Asia. The central question: will superiority in the Gulf lead to a political settlement or further escalation.

Seven months after the outbreak of the war against Iran, oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to about 80% of pre-war levels. The American achievement was achieved through a naval blockade imposed by the US Navy, continuous escort of vessels in the Persian Gulf, and the use of alternative pipeline routes. The military effort required massive deployment: nearly a third of US Navy destroyers and the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, which remained in the region for nearly a year. The prolonged effort sparked friction within the Pentagon leadership due to concerns over depletion of advanced munitions stockpiles and diversion of resources from other theaters, as illustrated by the transfer of the aircraft carrier George Washington from the Pacific to the Middle East. The summit between Trump and Xi Jinping, held between September 23 and 25, highlighted China's status as America's main strategic competitor. China continues to maintain economic ties with Iran and preserve trade channels, thereby reducing the effectiveness of American pressure. Additional reports indicate Chinese assistance to Iran in intelligence and military technology, including the transfer of information from satellite imagery and the supply of electronic components for drones and missiles. The Iranian proposal includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and returning to nuclear negotiations, in exchange for lifting the naval blockade, easing sanctions, and releasing frozen Iranian assets. However, Tehran is not yet ready for significant concessions on uranium enrichment. Trump claimed that a year ago he would have accepted the deal, but now the Americans believe that superiority in Hormuz allows them to continue increasing pressure. The central question is whether military and economic pressure will lead to a long-term change in Iran's behavior, or rather to escalation and expansion of the conflict.