The siege is working: China reduces trade with Iran - and the economic crisis worsens

China is rapidly reducing trade with Iran due to its inability to pay and following the Trump-Xi summit. In Iran, the dollar has crossed 2.7 million rials, inflation is soaring, and oil revenues are nearly zero. Prof. Shlomo Maoz estimates that if the siege continues, by June 2027 the regime may struggle to function economically and civically.

China is rapidly reducing trade with Iran, due to the latter's inability to pay for goods and possibly also following the Trump-Xi Jinping summit in Washington. The Chinese have concluded that oil exports from Iran will not resume soon, so they are stopping refined oil exports and reducing shipments of goods in all areas. Another reason: Beijing assesses that the US is determined to persist with economic pressure, and Iran's leadership is not ripe for compromise. In Iran, the economic crisis is intensifying: the dollar has crossed 2.7 million rials, the euro has crossed 3 million rials. The central bank's attempt to halt the collapse by injecting $2 million failed. The American naval blockade has reduced oil revenues to nearly zero. Average inflation hovers around 70% to 73.6%, and according to less conservative estimates, it is approaching 100%. Prices of basic food items have surged by 120% to 150% since the start of the war. The official unemployment rate is approaching 10%, but in practice it is three times higher. Economist Prof. Shlomo Maoz estimates that if the Americans continue to block Hormuz and the air route, by no later than June 2027 the regime will no longer be able to function economically and civically.