The nuclear clock does not mandate a strike on Iran, but the political clock is ticking

Reports from Washington about the possibility of renewed strikes on Iran before Israel's elections, alongside Netanyahu's attempts to advance such a move. Trump initially leaned toward agreeing, but cooled after talks with advisers and cross-referencing intelligence. Israeli officials confirm some Iranian progress, but not at a scale that mandates an immediate strike. The security establishment is cautious due to concern over Iranian miscalculation and the proximity to the elections.

In the past week, reports from Washington multiplied about the possibility of renewed strikes on Iran even before Israel's elections, and about attempts by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to advance such a move. The Prime Minister's Office denied that Netanyahu is pushing for a strike, but refrained from addressing the content of his talks with US President Donald Trump. Barak Ravid reported that Trump initially leaned toward agreeing to a strike due to "new alarming steps Iran is taking in the nuclear field," but his enthusiasm cooled after talks with his advisers and cross-referencing American intelligence that did not indicate immediate urgency. Israeli officials confirmed this week some Iranian progress in improving and rehabilitating capabilities, but not at a scale requiring a strike in the immediate time frame. Western intelligence organizations identify increased activity at two central sites: Mount Kolang near Natanz, where Iran is trying to establish new underground enrichment facilities, and the military base at Parchin, where the nuclear trigger is being developed. The other main nuclear sites are monitored around the clock and no activity requiring a strike has been identified there. The security establishment is cautious due to concern over Iranian miscalculation and the proximity to the elections. Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz have issued threats toward Iran and Lebanon. The analysis emphasizes the tension between the nuclear clock and the political clock.