Israel and the US understand that an airstrike will not topple the regime. So they are waiting | Analysis
Ron Ben-Yishai's analysis examines the military cooperation between Israel and the US against Iran, explaining why another airstrike will not bring down the regime. The author describes the strategic deadlock: despite aerial military superiority and a naval blockade, the Iranian leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei refuses to surrender. The analysis focuses on the lack of an organized ground force to challenge the Revolutionary Guards, and the understanding by Trump and Netanyahu that toppling the regime is the only goal that will ensure long-term security.
Ron Ben-Yishai's analysis deeply examines the military-strategic cooperation between Israel and the US against Iran, explaining why another airstrike will not bring down the regime. The author describes a strategic stalemate: despite the absolute aerial military superiority of the US and Israel and the naval blockade imposed by CENTCOM in the Persian Gulf, the Iranian leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei refuses to surrender and acts as if victorious. The analysis focuses on two main reasons: the fanatical-religious nature of the regime, which sees surrender to the American and Jewish 'infidels' as a desecration; and the lack of an organized ground force to challenge the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij. The author reviews the split in Iranian leadership between the conservative-hardline faction led by Khamenei and the moderate faction of President Pezeshkian, and describes the collapse of the June memorandum of understanding after the Revolutionary Guards violated it and attacked merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Following this, Trump hardened his positions and now demands that negotiations begin specifically on the nuclear issue, rather than on lifting sanctions. The author notes that Trump and Rubio are approaching the Israeli position that only toppling the regime will ensure Iran does not rebuild its nuclear program. However, the analysis points to the dilemma: if two joint aerial operations did not change the regime's positions, what good will another operation do?