The Most Dangerous Scenario for Donald Trump - Iran Is Already Counting on It

Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher at the INSS, assesses that the Revolutionary Guards are unlikely to back down from their stance toward the US, and that Iran is banking on the US midterm elections as a turning point. According to him, the American blockade and sanctions are harming the Iranian economy but are not leading to a policy change or surrender, and the escalation in the Strait of Hormuz continues.

Danny Citrinowicz, a researcher in the Iran program at the INSS, assesses that the Revolutionary Guards do not intend to retreat from the intransigence they are displaying toward the United States. According to him, the American blockade, especially the naval one, and the new sanctions regime are operating and harming the Iranian economy, which entered the campaign in a problematic economic state, as expressed in the January protests. However, he emphasizes that the difficult situation is not leading the Iranians to reconsider their policy. Citrinowicz notes a significant increase in Iranian attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to escalation rather than surrender. He is convinced that Iran is counting on the date of the US midterm elections, November 3, based on the perception that Trump will lose control of the House and Senate, which would give Iran the upper hand. On the other hand, the Americans assess that the Iranian economy will collapse or that Iran will come to the negotiating table. Citrinowicz clarifies that there is great concern in Iran that the US will return to an intensive campaign, but also opposing claims. He concludes that the sides are not converging on an agreement, and the deadlock could lead to escalation, especially in the Strait of Hormuz.