The deployment that worries Israel: Hamas prepares for the possibility of a return to war

Israeli intelligence sources identify increased preparations by Hamas for the possibility of renewed fighting in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is using the interim period to stockpile weapons and rebuild capabilities, while transferring arms to civilian areas. The defense establishment fears the organization is exploiting the election window in Israel and the US to amass power, assessing that the political conditions will change afterward.

Israeli intelligence sources have recently identified increased preparations by Hamas for the possibility of renewed fighting in the Gaza Strip. According to the intelligence picture presented to the political echelon, Hamas is using the interim period to amass power and weapons, including transferring arms to civilian areas such as hospitals and schools. The assessment in Israel is that Hamas is also looking at the political calendar: the organization estimates that until the elections in Israel and the US, Israel's room for maneuver is limited and it will not receive a green light to return to a broad campaign in the Strip. Accordingly, the defense establishment identifies an attempt to use the time to build up power and prepare for the possibility that political conditions will change after the elections. Last month, the IDF attacked three weapons warehouses in the Strip containing firearms, explosives, and anti-tank weapons. In September, Muhammad Abu Alwan was eliminated, who was responsible for the funds of Hamas's political wing and was among 16 economic activists involved in transferring over a billion dollars to the organization's military activity. The mechanism meant to dismantle Hamas's military capabilities is still not fully operational. Nearly a year after the ceasefire, the alternative Palestinian government has not yet established itself in the Strip, and the stabilization force has not yet been deployed. Against this backdrop, criticism arose in the cabinet from Minister Orit Strock regarding the "salami method" - progress in rehabilitating the Strip while the disarmament of Hamas has not yet been completed. Netanyahu replied that he would "handle the issue." Israeli freedom of action depends on the White House's position. Israel continues with pinpoint operations, but Hamas believes a return to a broad campaign is not expected without an American green light. The gap between Israel and the US concerns the room for maneuver against Hamas's strengthening during a period when the disarmament mechanism is still not fully operational. Kushner clarified that the US does not expect Israel to refrain from acting against immediate threats, but the peace council envoys sought to limit strikes to threats considered immediate. Netanyahu sought to preserve a broader room for maneuver, including against Hamas operatives who participated in the October 7 massacre.