Scientists warn: a space disaster could begin in just 14 years

A study warns that the Kessler syndrome, a chain reaction of space debris collisions, could begin as early as 2040. The article reviews the danger, past events, and current data on space debris.

Scientists warn that a chain reaction of space debris collisions, known as the Kessler syndrome, could begin as early as 2040. A 2025 study by Akhil Rao and Giacomo Rondina, published in the Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, combined physical and economic models and estimated that, depending on the launch rate, the chain reaction could occur between 2040 and 2184. The article cites data from the European Space Agency as of October 23, 2026, stating that about 19,400 satellites are in orbit, of which about 15,900 are active, and about 1.5 million debris fragments of 1-10 cm. It describes past events: the destruction of a Chinese satellite in 2007, the Iridium 33-Kosmos 2251 collision in 2009, and the breakup of the US spy satellite USA 32 on September 13, 2026. The article notes that debris removal is complex and expensive, and that private companies have a financial incentive to continue launches even as the risk increases.