Saudi Arabia under siege: How normalization with Israel could become the lesser threat

The article analyzes Saudi Arabia's security and political situation under siege from Shiite militias in the north and the Houthis in the south, with damage to oil infrastructure and holy sites. The author argues that the Saudi regime, fearing normalization with Israel, seeks to avoid a decisive outcome through indirect diplomatic maneuvers while ignoring the immediate existential threat to its rule.

The article presents a grim picture of Saudi Arabia, which is effectively under siege: Iranian drones from Yemen reach the outskirts of Mecca, the east-west oil pipeline has been severely damaged, and oil exports to Europe have ceased. The author argues that the downing of a Saudi F-15 is not an isolated malfunction but a symbol of the kingdom's systemic failure, unable to defend its skies and its main source of income. The regime, led by Mohammed bin Salman, fears normalization with Israel as a political and religious risk to its survival, and therefore seeks to avoid a decision by turning to Egypt, China, and Syria, while refusing to join an open alliance with the US and Israel. The article proposes an alternative strategy: decoupling normalization from the activation of the IMEC trade corridor, leveraging India, changing the security assistance equation, and promoting the UAE as a rival. The goal is to bring Saudi Arabia to a point where it understands that the immediate existential threat to its rule is greater than the risk of peace with Israel.