Putin has trapped himself - the next step could be fatal
British political scientist Mark Galeotti, in a column for The Times, analyzes Vladimir Putin's strategic dilemmas following the parliamentary elections in Russia. Galeotti considers two scenarios: intensifying strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in winter followed by negotiations, or large-scale escalation including mobilization and strikes on European infrastructure. The political scientist warns that failed escalation could trap the Kremlin, leaving a choice between retreat and further raising the stakes, up to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
British political scientist and historian Mark Galeotti, in a column for The Times, analyzes Vladimir Putin's strategic position after the parliamentary elections in Russia. According to Galeotti, the Kremlin faces a difficult choice regarding its further strategy in the war against Ukraine. The political scientist examines two main scenarios. The first involves intensifying Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure in winter and attempting to achieve new results in Donbas, followed by a transition to negotiations. The second, more dangerous scenario includes large-scale mobilization of hundreds of thousands of reservists and increased sabotage activities in Europe. Galeotti warns that failed escalation could trap Putin, leaving a choice between retreating from set goals and further raising the stakes. Among the extreme scenarios, the political scientist mentions the use of tactical nuclear weapons or strikes on European infrastructure linked to arms supplies to Ukraine. Galeotti also notes signs of war fatigue in Russian society and economic problems, particularly the reduction of payments for army contracts in regions—in Mordovia, the payment amount decreased from 3 million to 800 thousand rubles. European governments, according to the political scientist, do not yet consider a direct Russian attack on a NATO country inevitable, but fear that further escalation could gradually corner the Russian leadership, leaving less and less room for retreat.