Polls have missed the mark in almost every election since 2006, especially for small parties. Will they miss again this time?

An analysis by The Hottest Place in Hell shows that in almost every election over the past twenty years, polls have missed the mark, particularly for small parties. Examples include Meretz in 2022, Yesh Atid in 2013, and Likud being underestimated in 2015 and April 2019. The article notes that the decisive gap of one or two seats is smaller than the polls' margin of error.

The Hottest Place in Hell examined the performance of polls in Israel over the past twenty years and found that in almost every election they missed the mark, especially for small parties. Examples include: in 2022, Meretz received four to five seats in polls but failed to pass the electoral threshold; in 2013, Yesh Atid polled at 8 to 13 seats and won 19; in 2015 and April 2019, Likud was underestimated by 7-9 seats, but the bloc as a whole was predicted well. The article notes that the electoral threshold is a consistent weak point, and that the decisive gap of one or two seats around 60-61 is smaller than the usual margin of error of polls. It also mentions the 1996 elections, where polls and exit polls predicted a victory for Peres but Netanyahu won by 29,457 votes. The article points to a tendency of polls to underestimate Likud, and explains that campaigns in the final days before elections may be particularly effective.

Polls have missed the mark in almost every election since 2006, especially for small parties. Will they miss again this time?