On the way to the next round with Iran
Dr. Raz Zimmt, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies, analyzes the trends leading to another confrontation between the US and Iran. Despite Trump's statements about avoiding an attack before the midterm elections, previous attacks and current preparations indicate an approaching round of fighting. The economic pressure on Iran is not bringing it to its knees, and the leadership in Tehran is entrenching its positions while exploiting its patience against American impatience.
Dr. Raz Zimmt, a researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), analyzes in a commentary article the trends leading to another confrontation between the US and Iran. Despite Trump's statement that he will not attack Iran before the November midterm elections, the attacks in June 2025 and February 2026 came against the backdrop of similar messages from the White House. The American preparation for another attack indicates a growing understanding in Washington and Jerusalem that economic pressure on Iran does not guarantee its surrender. Iran is indeed paying a heavy economic price, but the leadership in Tehran is entrenching its positions. The main reasons: complete distrust of the Trump administration, and a perception that in the pain threshold competition, Tehran has the upper hand due to its patience against Trump's impatience. The regime sees the confrontation as an existential threat, and the price of compromise is perceived as higher than the price of resistance. As time passes, the status quo of "no war, no peace" cannot continue, and the temptation for escalation grows on both sides.