"Something is happening there": Is the regime in Iran beginning to lose control?

Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur, a former senior official in the IDF Planning and Intelligence Divisions, analyzed the situation in Iran and pointed to heavy internal pressures: hidden protests in the periphery, severe water shortages, and the forced wearing of the hijab. According to him, these pressures are pushing Tehran toward regional escalation through its proxies in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, in an attempt to divert attention from the internal crisis.

Lt. Col. (res.) Amit Yagur, a former senior official in the IDF Planning and Intelligence Divisions, appeared on the program "Israel This Morning" on Channel 14 and analyzed the strategic situation in Iran. Yagur pointed to heavy internal pressures eroding the Ayatollahs' regime: hidden protests in the periphery, mainly in Balochistan province in the southeast of the country, where severe clashes have occurred that the regime is trying to conceal; an extreme shortage of water reservoirs in Khorasan; and the forced wearing of the hijab on women, a move indicating fear of losing public control. According to Yagur, these pressures are leading Tehran to deliberate regional escalation through its proxies in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to create external pressure and divert public opinion. He referred to the recent attacks on Riyadh's airport in Saudi Arabia, in which many civilians were injured, including an American citizen, as a deliberate event to test the regional response. Yagur expressed skepticism about the impact of the US midterm elections on decision-making and emphasized that the strategic goal should be the overthrow of the regime in Iran. He noted that the American deployment in the area, including troop reinforcements and aircraft carrier positioning, indicates critical weeks in which Iran may deliberately escalate the situation.