Not what you thought: What really makes people decide to get vaccinated?

A new Israeli study, based on data from 15 countries and 22,521 participants in the European Social Survey, found that the most decisive factor in the willingness of unvaccinated people to get vaccinated is the vaccination rate among their age group. A one percent increase in the weekly vaccination rate in the age group was associated with a 1.5 to 3 percent increase in willingness to vaccinate. The link was particularly prominent among young people and those aged 60-69.

A new Israeli study, conducted based on data from 15 countries and examining 22,521 participants in the European Social Survey (2021-2022), found that the most influential factor on the willingness of unvaccinated people to get vaccinated is the vaccination rate among their age group. Of the participants, 6,209 had not yet been vaccinated at the time of the interview. The researchers cross-referenced their answers with vaccination data in their country, focusing on the increase in the vaccination rate among their age group in the week preceding the interview. The findings were consistent: the faster the vaccination progressed within that age group, the higher the willingness of those who had not yet been vaccinated to join. According to the models, an increase of one percentage point in the weekly vaccination rate in the age group was associated with an increase of about 1.5 to 3 percentage points in the probability of expressing willingness to vaccinate. The link was prominent among young people and those aged 60-69, but was not found among those aged 70 and over. The researchers estimate that people of the same age share a similar cost-benefit analysis (loss of workdays, side effects versus risk of illness) and therefore are more likely to trust their peers' decisions. Additionally, when 65%-70% of the age group had already been vaccinated, a further increase in the vaccination rate was associated with higher willingness. The researchers recommend age-group-targeted campaigns instead of generic messages for the entire population. The study examined stated willingness and not actual vaccination, and the researchers emphasize that a causal link cannot be determined.