Dragon submarine highlights Case 3000 dilemma: Was Netanyahu right for wrong reasons? - analysis

The arrival of the INS Dragon submarine reignites debate over Case 3000, the state inquiry into Prime Minister Netanyahu's 2012 approval of submarine purchases. The navy now confirms it needs all its submarines, including the Dragon, and is pressing for two more. However, questions remain about Netanyahu's decision to conceal the deal from most of the defense establishment, prioritizing submarines over armored vehicles that could have saved lives in the 2014 Gaza conflict. Critics argue his secretive methods endangered national security and Mossad operatives, while supporters praise his forward-looking strategic judgment.

The arrival of the INS Dragon submarine in Israel this past Thursday has brought the Case 3000 state inquiry back into the headlines, as the inquiry enters its final hearing stage on November 1. The central dilemma: was Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu right to push through the submarine purchases in 2012, even if he did so by concealing the deal from most of the defense establishment? The Israeli navy today confirms it needs all its submarines, including the Dragon, and is pressing the government to approve two more Dakar-class submarines for delivery starting in 2031, potentially expanding the fleet from six to eight. This vindicates Netanyahu's forward-looking strategic judgment, especially given Turkey's expansion to 14 submarines and geopolitical tensions over the Straits of Hormuz and Bab El Mandeb. However, the defense establishment at the time wanted to prioritize armored vehicles to protect soldiers from ambushes in Gaza and Lebanon. During the 2014 Gaza conflict, dozens of IDF casualties came from driving unarmored vehicles that could have been protected had the armored vehicles been purchased in 2012. Netanyahu only approved armored vehicles after the 2014 conflict and public furor. Critics also note that Netanyahu approved Germany selling submarines to Egypt, which occurred when the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohammed Morsi briefly held power in 2012-2013. A recent Yediot Aharonot report by Ronen Bergman claims Netanyahu's actions endangered Mossad operatives who were sent on missions that would not have been executed had the agency known what Netanyahu was doing. Multiple officials testified in a High Court proceeding that they invested heavy resources trying to identify who was acting against Israeli interests, only to learn from foreign allies that Netanyahu was the actor. The state prosecution found no criminal case, but Netanyahu has not fully come forward to defend his actions before the state inquiry, leaving questions about his motives and methods unanswered.