Less than two weeks to elections: the gap that opened in Polymarket - within 24 hours

The Polymarket prediction market shows an advantage for the Yashar! party of Gadi Eisenkot in two metrics: the chance it will be the largest party in the Knesset and the chance he will be appointed prime minister. In the last 24 hours, the probability for Yashar! rose by about ten percentage points, while the probability for Likud dropped by about 7.5 points. The market's trading volume stands at about $46 million.

The Polymarket prediction market, where participants buy and sell contracts on future outcomes, indicates a clear advantage for the Yashar! party led by Gadi Eisenkot, less than two weeks before the elections. According to the site's data, the probability that Yashar! will be the largest party in the Knesset rose in the last 24 hours by about ten percentage points, while the probability for Likud dropped by about 7.5 points. The gap opened within 24 hours. The graph shows that Eisenkot has gradually strengthened over the year and reached nearly 60%, while Netanyahu has hovered around 25% to 35%. Naftali Bennett, who was higher earlier this year, weakened in the summer but has recovered somewhat recently. The total trading volume in the market stands at nearly $46 million, a figure indicating unusual international interest. The article emphasizes that Polymarket is not a public opinion poll, but a prediction market based on betting.