Israel’s next strategic surprise may not be a war - opinion
A veteran Israeli defense analyst argues that Israel's next strategic surprise could be a diplomatic opening or regional realignment, not a war. Drawing on historical intelligence failures from the 1973 Yom Kippur War to the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, the piece warns that certainty and technological overconfidence can blind decision-makers to both threats and opportunities. The author recalls a 1996 meeting with Shimon Peres and notes failures to foresee the fall of the shah of Iran, the Oslo process, and the Arab Spring, urging intelligence leaders to also consider where opportunities might arise.
A veteran Israeli defense analyst argues that Israel's next strategic surprise could be a diplomatic opening or regional realignment, not a war. The piece draws on historical intelligence failures including the 1973 Yom Kippur War, the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the fall of the Soviet Union, and the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack. It warns that certainty and technological overconfidence can blind decision-makers to both threats and opportunities. The author recalls a 1996 meeting with Shimon Peres, who asked National Security College graduates if they had predicted the USSR's collapse. He also notes that Israel failed to foresee the fall of the shah of Iran, the Oslo process, and the Arab Spring. The piece urges intelligence leaders to ask not only where the next danger will come from but also where the next opportunity might arise.