Iran tried to intimidate Saudi Arabia - it may have made Riyadh more powerful instead - opinion

Iran's strategy to intimidate Saudi Arabia by threatening the Strait of Hormuz and driving up oil prices may be backfiring, making Riyadh more strategically valuable. Tehran's own oil exports have been crippled by a US blockade, while Saudi Arabia's infrastructure investments and diplomatic positioning have strengthened its hand. The article argues that Iran's pressure is increasing Saudi Arabia's leverage with Washington, Israel, and other powers, potentially leading to a larger regional realignment. Saudi investments like the East-West Pipeline allow it to bypass Hormuz, and higher prices have produced a revenue windfall. The US seeks Saudi support to limit Iran, Israel wants normalization, and Trump wants a diplomatic outcome. A proposed 30-year US-Saudi nuclear cooperation deal ties these interests together, with Riyadh demanding progress on the Palestinian issue.

Iran's strategy to intimidate Saudi Arabia by threatening the Strait of Hormuz and driving up oil prices may be backfiring, making Riyadh more strategically valuable. Tehran's own ability to profit from higher oil prices has been crippled by a US blockade, with Iranian crude exports falling from around two million barrels a day in March to roughly 220,000 to 255,000 barrels a day in August. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, invested in infrastructure like the East-West Pipeline that allows it to bypass Hormuz, and the IMF found that rerouting crude through the pipeline helped limit the decline in Saudi oil deliveries while higher prices produced a revenue windfall. The article argues that Iran's pressure is increasing Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's leverage with Washington, Israel, and other powers. The United States wants Saudi weight behind a regional order that limits Iran, Israel wants normalization with the most important Arab state still outside the Abraham Accords, and Trump wants an outcome he can present as something larger than another costly confrontation with Tehran. The proposed 30-year US-Saudi civilian nuclear cooperation agreement illustrates what is at stake, with Washington linking the deal to normalization with Israel while Riyadh continues to demand meaningful movement on the Palestinian issue. The article concludes that Iran wanted Riyadh to feel vulnerable enough to compromise, but may instead be making Riyadh indispensable.