Haredim will occupy one of the main niches in Israel - alarming forecast

According to a study by Eli Morgenstern, by the 2030/31 school year, the number of first-graders in Haredi schools may exceed that of state Jewish education. Since 2023, the number of first-graders in the state sector has decreased by 12%, while in ultra-Orthodox schools it has grown by 11%. The demographic shift could occur within the next five years, rather than in the second half of the 21st century.

A study by public administration and policy expert Eli Morgenstern, published by Ynet, predicts that as early as the 2030/31 school year, the number of first-graders in Israeli Haredi schools may exceed that of state Jewish education. If the trend continues, Haredim will become the largest educational sector in the country. Since 2023, the number of first-graders in the state Jewish sector has decreased by about 12%, while in ultra-Orthodox schools it has grown by 11%. The shares of state-religious and Arab education remain relatively stable. By 2025, the share of first-graders in the Arab education system was about 23%, and in state-religious education — 16%. According to the forecast, by 2030 more than half of Israeli children will study outside the Zionist sector. This trend is also visible in kindergartens: the share of children from ultra-Orthodox and Arab sectors grew from 43.8% in 2019 to 48.9% in 2026 and is projected to reach 50.4% in 2028. At the same time, a significant portion of these children do not study the full state core curriculum and are not oriented toward military or civilian service. Earlier demographic forecasts by the Central Bureau of Statistics assumed that ultra-Orthodox would make up a third of Israel's population and half of Jewish children only by 2065. However, according to Morgenstern's assessment, these calculations underestimated the pace of change: processes expected decades from now are already evident among preschoolers and elementary school children. In 2025, the number of children in state Jewish kindergartens was 23,600, or nearly 13%, below the 2023 forecast, while Haredi education exceeded expectations. The demographic shift could occur within the next five years.