Even a war with Iran won't save Netanyahu - the reason has been named

Maariv columnist Gil Beilin doubts that a new military operation against Iran will give Netanyahu political advantages ahead of the elections. The occasion was Ben Caspit's report that the Trump administration demanded Israel strike Iran on its own. Beilin cites the experience of 1981 and 1996, but notes: after two rounds of confrontation with Iran, the blocs retain equal support.

A possible new Israeli military operation against Iran may not bring Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu the political advantages he expects ahead of the elections. So writes Maariv columnist Gil Beilin. The occasion for the discussion was a report by journalist Ben Caspit, according to which the administration of US President Donald Trump demanded that Israel strike Iran on its own on the eve of the Israeli elections. Washington reckoned the operation would strengthen Netanyahu's position, and Trump was reportedly seeking to avoid direct US participation in an escalation before the midterm congressional elections. Beilin considers such a calculation to be based on an outdated view of voters. In the past, major operations influenced politics - for example, the destruction of the Iraqi reactor in 1981 strengthened Menachem Begin before the elections; the 1996 Operation Grapes of Wrath and campaigns in the Gaza Strip are also mentioned. However, Israel has already been through two rounds of direct confrontation with Iran, and the blocs retain roughly equal support. Beilin links this to a changed information environment: social networks spread opposing assessments of a single event. Government supporters see resolve in the actions, opponents see political calculation or unjustified risk. Netanyahu's main problem, according to the author, is the deep split in society, which another escalation cannot overcome.