Are the polls missing the mark? These are the key points - that could decide the elections

The article examines factors that could decide the 2026 elections beyond the polls: the vote of immigrants from Russia and Ukraine, flights from abroad, voter turnout in Arab localities, Haredi voting patterns, parties below the electoral threshold, turnout in liberal cities, changes in Likud strongholds, and first-time voters.

The article examines key factors that could decide the outcome of the 2026 elections, beyond poll predictions. Among the factors: the vote of immigrants from Russia and Ukraine, defined as an 'unknown' and representing about three seats; flights from abroad, with an estimate of 67,000 Israelis who will be in the country on election day; voter turnout in Arab localities, which could affect the ability to form a government; Haredi voting patterns and small parties that may erode their power; parties below the electoral threshold, such as Ofer Winter's party; turnout in liberal cities; changes in Likud strongholds, where Eisenkot is running a 'Prime Minister Dialna' campaign; and first-time voters, young people who served in the IDF after October 7. The article notes a gap between polls by Keshet, Reshet, and Kan (a 4-6 seat advantage for the change bloc) and polls by Channel 14 (over 60 seats for the Netanyahu bloc).