US-Iran Deal and Regional Tensions: Israel's Shifting Alliances and Internal Crises

Contradictory statements from Washington and Tehran leave the deal's status uncertain, while Iran asserts control over the Strait of Hormuz.

US-Iran Deal Confusion and Strait of Hormuz Tensions — Throughout the week, the US-Iran nuclear deal remained in a state of confusion. US VP Vance claimed progress and IAEA access, but Iranian officials denied any agreement on inspections or missiles. Trump threatened Iran, while Iran's Qalibaf warned of retaliation. The Strait of Hormuz became a flashpoint: Iran's Revolutionary Guards declared they were no longer bound by navigation agreements, though CENTCOM reported ships continued crossing. US Secretary of State Rubio ruled out Iranian tolls, and Oman offered an alternative corridor, but traffic remained at 40% of pre-war levels. By week's end, the US struck Iran after a drone attack on a cargo ship, and Defense Minister Katz threatened the Quds Force commander, signaling continued volatility. IDF Deepens Operations in Lebanon Amid Hezbollah Weakness — The IDF intensified operations in southern Lebanon, discovering a massive Hezbollah tunnel containing 50 Iranian-made UAVs and 8 tons of explosives. Two Israeli soldiers were killed, and the Chief of Staff declared readiness for a large-scale operation. Hezbollah's Naim Qassem acknowledged the group's inability to defeat Israel in open war, reflecting waning support due to Lebanon's economic crisis. A poll showed 49% of Lebanese want peace with Israel, a 24% increase. However, IDF operations faced criticism for stagnation and frustration among officers. By week's end, Israel, Lebanon, and the US signed a tripartite framework agreement, though Defense Minister Katz said the IDF would stay 'without time limit.' Haredi Conscription Crisis Threatens Coalition Stability — The Haredi conscription crisis deepened, with ultra-Orthodox parties boycotting coalition meetings and staging violent protests, blocking highways and clashing with police. Haredi leaders issued a 48-hour ultimatum to pass a law blocking arrests of yeshiva students, threatening to dissolve the Knesset. Netanyahu promised fast-track legislation, but coalition tensions remained high. The IDF warned of a manpower crisis, and reservist unemployment reached 23%. The Knesset advanced a Basic Law on Torah study, drawing criticism from legal experts who