Likud's mixed returns and the battle for the 61st seat
Record turnout in Arab and left-wing strongholds reshapes coalition arithmetic as Likud bleeds support in some right-wing bastions.
Likud's mixed returns and the battle for the 61st seat — About two hours before polls closed, Ra'am chairman Mansour Abbas delivered an ambitious speech setting a goal of eight seats for his party.[^1] The target was a marker of ambition, but also of a deeper structural shift: by 4:00 PM, national voter turnout had reached a historic 55.7%, with the Central Elections Committee reporting 4,085,075 voters.[^2] The surge was not evenly distributed. In left-wing strongholds, turnout hit 55% (compared to 45% in 2022), and in the Arab sector it nearly doubled to 49% (from 26%).[^3] In right-wing strongholds, by contrast, turnout reached only 50% (compared to 44%).[^3] The gap was smaller in percentage points but larger in political consequence — because the right started from a higher base and needed every vote to secure a coalition. Likud's local returns reflected this uneven energy. In Dimona, the party rose from 50.9% to 54.09%; in Beit She'an, from 47.86% to 52.53%.[^4] But in Or Akiva, it fell from 47.16% to 38.93%, and in Afula from 42.5% to 37.98%.[^4] The pattern was not uniform: Kiryat Shmona and Sderot saw modest declines, while Be'er Sheva and Ashkelon held nearly steady.[^4] The data suggests a fragmented base — some communities rallied, others drifted. Channel 14's election panel, hosted by Noam Amir, discussed alarming voter turnout data from right-wing strongholds.[^5] Pollster Shmuel Rosner, confronted live on Channel 13 by anchor Doria Lampl, explained that Likud was weaker in the polls and its satellite parties were stronger, but in reality the satellite parties were crushed.[^6] On Polymarket, the betting markets shifted dramatically. Benjamin Netanyahu regained the lead with a 44% probability of serving as the next prime minister, while Gadi Eisenkot dropped to 42% after losing 12 percentage points.[^7] Likud surged to an 85% probability of being the largest party, a leap of 54%.[^7] The smart money was moving, but the arithmetic remained uncertain. Former Defense Minister Moshe Bogie Ya'alon published a sharp post on X calling on the leaders of the Change Bloc to take over the Knesset, attacking the outgoing government as "a government of messia