Iran Loses Grip on Strait of Hormuz as Threats Intensify
IRGC loses control over shipping as 70% of vessels bypass its warnings, while Tehran threatens new capabilities.
Iran Loses Grip on Strait of Hormuz as Threats Intensify — In the past 24 hours, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) lost control over shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, as about 70% of vessels took the southern route off the coast of Oman, ignoring IRGC recommendations. Earlier on Friday, three foreign oil tankers were forced to change course after IRGC warnings, but the overall trend shows diminished Iranian authority over the strategic waterway. General Mohsen Rezaei of the IRGC responded with a threat: "We will deploy new capabilities on the battlefield, and Trump must know that this time the losses will be very serious."[^2] This warning comes as the administration of US President Donald Trump is reportedly considering establishing a direct communication channel with Iran to prevent accidental armed clashes in the Strait of Hormuz. However, the White House dismissed the toll plan as 'fake news,' creating a mixed signal from Washington. Iran also warned Gulf states against allowing their territory to be used for strikes on the Islamic Republic, while a European source revealed that access to Mojtaba Khamenei has been transferred to a security channel under IRGC supervision, indicating heightened internal security measures.[^4] The dual dynamic of Iranian weakness on the water and aggressive rhetoric on land raises the question: can Tehran restore deterrence without triggering a direct confrontation it may not be able to control? Balad primaries, AI election law, and Eisenkot's campaign trail — In Shefa-Amr on Saturday, the Balad party held primaries to select its list for the upcoming elections, with voting open from 10:00 to 15:00.[^1] Orly Noy, chair of the human rights organization B'Tselem, secured the fifth spot on the party's list.[^2] The primaries come as Israeli politics churns ahead of elections, with multiple parties maneuvering for position. Meanwhile, the Knesset Constitution Committee, chaired by MK Simcha Rothman, is set to convene tomorrow to discuss legislation addressing threats posed by artificial intelligence to election integrity.[^3] The move signals growing concern over deepfakes and AI-generated disinformation ahead of