Where is it safe to live in Israel – the truth and myths about statistics

A recent crime ranking in Israel surprisingly placed the busiest areas of Tel Aviv at the top for danger. Sociologist Dr. Guy Shani explains that the calculation method distorts the real picture: the crime rate is calculated per thousand permanent residents, not accounting for thousands of visitors. As a result, quiet residential areas appear safer, although the actual crime situation may be different.

A recent crime ranking in Israel unexpectedly placed the busiest spots in Tel Aviv—from South Rothschild and Sarona to Carmel HaTeymanim and South Florentin—at the top for danger. Sociologist Dr. Guy Shani from the College of Management explains that behind the sensational headlines lies a flawed calculation method. The main problem is that the crime rate is calculated per thousand permanent residents, while in dynamic commercial and entertainment areas, thousands of people who are not registered there are present day and night. Crimes committed by or against visitors are divided solely by the small base of local residents, automatically inflating the figures. A significant portion of offenses in such places are committed by non-residents. Additional confusion arises from the structure of the statistics: the general category of property crimes lumps everything together—from serious burglaries to vandalism and graffiti. In South Rothschild, minor property offenses account for up to 78% of cases, while violence constitutes about 13% (for comparison, in the Tikva neighborhood, this figure reaches 28%). The category "violent crimes" includes everything from verbal insults to murder. Surveys by the Central Bureau of Statistics show that about 80% of Israelis feel safe in their place of residence.