US assesses China will not invade Taiwan in the coming years

US officials assess that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is unlikely, despite Xi Jinping's order for the military to be ready by 2027. Reasons include delays in military readiness due to the Communist Party's anti-corruption campaign, and waiting for Taiwan's 2028 election results in hopes of a more favorable government.

US officials assess that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is becoming increasingly unlikely. This is despite Chinese President Xi Jinping's order for his military to be ready by 2027 to take the island by force. The main reasons include delays in Chinese military readiness stemming from a widespread anti-corruption campaign within the Communist Party. Additionally, Beijing wants to wait for the results of Taiwan's 2028 elections, hoping a new government will be more amenable to bringing the island under Chinese control. If the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) wins a fourth term, Beijing may increase the use of force starting in 2028. The assessment marks a significant update to the long-held understanding that Xi wanted his military ready by 2027. The US intelligence community has previously hinted that China has no immediate invasion plan and prefers control without using force. US President Trump previously downplayed the likelihood of an invasion during his presidency. China views Taiwan as a supreme sovereignty issue. The anti-corruption campaign has affected the Chinese military, and military exercises were smaller last year. A US official noted that China lacks many components to carry out an operation of this scale.