Trump needs agreement that surpasses Obama's nuclear deal for deal to postpone strikes - analysis

Analysis of US President Donald Trump's minimum requirements for a new nuclear deal with Iran to postpone military strikes. The article contrasts US and Israeli perspectives, noting Trump needs a deal that surpasses the 2015 Obama agreement by reducing enrichment to zero for a period, shipping out 60% enriched uranium, limiting surviving centrifuges, and restoring IAEA inspections. It references the July 2026 deal that Iran violated, the Strait of Hormuz closure, and the political unpopularity of Trump's 2026 war with Iran.

There is an ongoing flurry of diplomatic activity by Iran to cut an interim deal that would stave off a possible new attack by US President Donald Trump on Tehran. Some of the activity is also being pushed by US Vice President JD Vance, who has in the past been a leading voice arguing against US attacks on Iran within the Trump administration. The analysis examines what minimum Trump needs for a new Iran nuclear deal that would get him to postpone another attack, noting the answer is likely different from what Israel wants. Regarding the military part, the keys are getting something that Obama did not get in the 2015 nuclear deal and eliminating the potential for a nuclear threat over the next period of years. At minimum, Trump needs a nuclear deal with Iran to reduce the enrichment to zero for some period of time, even if only for a few years, or to last for longer than Obama's 10-15 years. Regarding eliminating the potential for a nuclear threat in the coming years (it is at least around two years away due to successful Israeli-US strikes in June 2025), Trump would need to have shipped out or diluted Iran's stockpile of 60% highly enriched uranium, limit its enrichment capabilities regarding the several hundred centrifuges which survived the June 2025 attacks, and restore effective inspections by the IAEA. The article notes that all of this would be insufficient from the Israeli perspective, because for Jerusalem, this period since June 2025 has been the once-in-50-years chance to finally end Tehran's nuclear program. It also discusses why Trump might settle for less than Israel, citing his 2026 war with Iran and the ongoing economic instability as bitterly unpopular with both Democrats and Republicans, and the need to fully open the Strait of Hormuz.